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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 04 1995
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS A
DEPRESSION ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  HENCE...THIS
FIRST ADVISORY ON TD EIGHTEEN...MOVING TOWARD 275/18 KT.  THE CENTER
POSITION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND THE TD COULD BE RELOCATED TO THE
NORTH IN UPCOMING ADVISORIES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LATITUDE EASTERLIES AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A W TO WNW MOTION WITH SOME DECELERATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE TRACK
GUIDANCE.  

THE BAM OUTPUT IMPLIES INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR BY 72 HOURS...SO
ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AS INDICATED BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATION.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z  8.4N  33.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z  8.7N  36.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z  9.3N  40.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z  9.8N  43.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 10.4N  46.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 11.5N  51.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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