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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 1995
 
POSITION ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN USING INFRARED IMAGERY BUT
THEY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION WAS 345/07...I CONSERVATIVELY CHANGED THE
MOTION TO 360/07...BUT IT COULD BE MORE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT BUT GENERALLY SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT FORWARD SPEEDS VARYING BETWEEN 5 AND 13 KNOTS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFDL VICBAR
OR BAM DEEP MODEL. ONCE AGAIN I AM RELUCTANT TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON AN UNCERTAIN POSITION ESTIMATE
FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.

THE CDO PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY BE A
SIGN OF WEAKENING.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING BEGINNING
WITH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 16.9N  42.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.8N  42.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N  41.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N  40.8W    60 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 21.2N  39.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N  38.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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