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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE LUIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 1995
 
RECON JUST REPORTED 949 MB AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 107 KNOTS SO
THE SURFACE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND LUIS MAY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS OVER COLD
WATERS.  LATEST AVN SHOWS THAT LUIS MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY 60 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 360/14.  TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED PRIMARILY INDICATED BY GFDL BAMD AND NHC90. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODELS BRINGING THE CENTER WITHIN 225
N MI WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS
NEAR CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.  
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 30.1N  69.5W    95 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 32.0N  69.5W    95 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 43.0N  58.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 48.5N  48.5W    80 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     12/0600Z 57.5N  33.5W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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