ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE LUIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 1995 HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED LEAVING A LARGE...45 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1730Z WAS 944 MB. PEAK FLIGHT- LEVEL WIND...NEAR 700 MB...IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT IS DOWN TO 114 KT...BUT REPORTS FROM NOAA RESEARCHERS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WIND WAS CLOSER TO 850 MB YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASED BY ONLY 5 KT IN THIS ADVISORY...TO 105 KT. THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11 KT. THE GUIDANCE AGAIN INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION. BY 72 HOURS...THE GFDL HAS LUIS MOVING AT 45 KT. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE ISLAND. LUIS WILL BE PASSING OVER A COOL POOL OF WATER LEFT BEHIND BY FELIX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE GULF STREAM AT 48 HOURS AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY 60 HOURS. THIS LEAVES LITTLE TIME FOR WEAKENING IN THE INTERIM. THEREFORE... IF THE CENTER CROSSES NEWFOUNDLAND THEN WINDS TO NEAR 90 KT COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS TO THE EAST. THE RAPID MOTION MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD GET FARTHER NORTH THAN NORMAL BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. A SECOND HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTABLISHING A LINE OF ABOUT 10 DRIFTING BUOYS AHEAD OF LUIS...ALONG LATITUDE 31N...FOR OPERATIONAL AND RESEARCH PURPOSES. WEAKENING RATE SHOWN IS SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGY. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 27.4N 69.6W 105 KTS 12HR VT 09/0600Z 29.2N 70.1W 105 KTS 24HR VT 09/1800Z 32.6N 69.7W 100 KTS 36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.1N 67.8W 100 KTS 48HR VT 10/1800Z 40.8N 62.7W 95 KTS 72HR VT 11/1800Z 51.0N 46.5W 85 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN