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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 1995
 
KAREN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF IRIS.  IT APPEARS THAT A RAIN BAND FROM IRIS
HAS MOVED OVER KAREN AND HAS INCREASED THE CONVECTION NEAR KARENS
CENTER.  THIS AND A 29 KNOT SHIP REPORT IS THE BASIS FOR RETAINING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER SIX HOURS.  WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO COMMENCE IMMEDIATELY AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS IT MERGES WITH IRIS.

IN CASE KAREN DOES NOT DISSIPATE...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NORTH AND N0RTHEASTWARD AT THE FORWARD SPEED OF 18 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO NOT CONSIDERED IN
THE FORECAST IS FOR KAREN TO CIRCLE AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST OF IRIS...NOT VERY LIKELY.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 27.5N  54.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 29.5N  55.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 32.5N  55.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  55.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 37.0N  54.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 40.0N  50.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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