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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN AUG 27 1995
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE DEPENDS ON
THE LOCATION OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER
IS ON INFRARED IMAGERY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ESTIMATE
FROM THE NESDIS SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS BRANCH.  THE ANALYST AT THE NHC IS
ESTIMATING 35 KNOTS...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER IS
MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION.  THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
AROUND 27C...BUT THE OUTFLOW FROM HUMBERTO AND/OR IRIS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.  ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS95 GUIDANCE AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN SHIFOR GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE FUTURE TRACK OF TD TWELVE
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED SOMEWHAT BY HUMBERTO.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFDL MODEL TOOK THE DEPRESSION NEARLY DUE WEST.  TONIGHTS 00Z RUN OF
THE GFDL TURNS THE DEPRESSION MUCH MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF HUMBERTO.  THIS SCENARIO IS
CERTAINLY REASONABLE BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO GET
SHEARED...RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM STILL MOVING MORE TOWARD THE
WEST.  OUR OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
PREDICTION MODELS...BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS THE GFDL YET.

MAYFIELD
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 15.7N  37.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  39.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N  42.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.2N  44.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 18.2N  47.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N  51.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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