ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 24 1995

RECON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS JUST OVER THE WATER A LITTLE
SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY.  THE CENTER....WHICH MAY BE ELONGATED NE-SW...
WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT BUT INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
290/08.  OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND NEAR OR SOUTH OF ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS.  

SINCE JERRY SHOULD BE OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. 
HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE
DEPRESSION IS SITUATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. 
STILL WE HAVE ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS BACK TO A 45-
KNOT TROPICAL STORM IN THE FORECAST.  IF THE CENTER TRACKS EVEN
LONGER OVER THE WATER THAN FORECAST...SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

WE ARE EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...CONSISTENT WITH OUR FORECAST...AND ALLOWING FOR
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN OUR TRACK PREDICTION.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 28.9N  83.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  84.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 30.1N  85.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 30.9N  87.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     26/1800Z 31.8N  88.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     27/1800Z 33.0N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
NNNN