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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 31 1995
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS
HUMBERTO MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHERE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION DOES NOT WORK WELL.
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN HUMBERTO IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITH
MOST CLOUD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...CONSISTENT WITH THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASCENT. THE
POSITION CENTER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IS FAIRLY ACCURATE THIS MORNING
AND IS LOCATED WEST OF MOST OF THE CONVECTION...DUE TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT HEADING IS
ABOUT 30/18.

MOST TRACK MODELS HAVE THE TRACK PERSISTENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES
SCATTERED BEYOND 36 HOURS BETWEEN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AND
SPEEDS VARY WIDELY.  THE APPROACHING TROUGH WEST OF HUMBERTO AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE CAPTURED THE CIRCULATION AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
LYONS
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 39.1N  38.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 41.4N  36.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 44.4N  34.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 48.2N  31.9W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/1200Z 51.8N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/1200Z 55.0N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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