ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 1995
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF HUMBERTO...WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/12 KT.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE LOW IS LIKELY PROVIDING A COMPONENT OF
THE STEERING FLOW THAT IS TAKING HUMBERTO TO THE NW TO NNW.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
N AND IMPLY A SIMILAR...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER...MOVEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OF SHIFOR. 
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 19.5N  46.2W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 21.1N  47.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N  47.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.4N  47.7W    85 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.4N  47.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  44.5W    80 KTS
 
 
NNNN