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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 24 1995
 
SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING HAVE LED TO DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
OF 5.0 AND 4.5+...WHICH SUPPORT 85 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
HUMBERTO APPEARS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN...AND RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED
BY...IRIS TO ITS WEST.  THE MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT...TO 7 KT.
 
TRACK FORECASTS REMAIN COMPLICATED BY IRIS AND BY POOR
INITIALIZATION OF BOTH SYSTEMS IN THE BACKGROUND AVN MODEL.  THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE SOME FUJIWHARA INTERACTION.  HUMBERTO IS ROUGHLY ON
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THIS FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW THE REMAINDER OF THAT PREDICTION.  IT IS TO THE LEFT OF
THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND CONSIDERABLY SLOWER TOWARD 72 HOURS.

DATA FROM A SHIP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS THE BASIS FOR
MODIFYING THE WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 15.6N  43.1W    85 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N  44.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N  46.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N  48.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  50.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 25.0N  52.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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