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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 1995

STRONG BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE WITH VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE.  THEREFORE
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NEAR 300/13.  THERE IS SOME DIVERSITY AMONG
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TRACKS.  WE STILL HAVE SOME DOUBT AS TO
WHETHER THE GLOBAL MODEL HAS INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM PROPERLY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS GUIDANCE...BUT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS NO
THREAT TO LAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
 
PASCH/MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 15.2N  37.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N  38.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.1N  40.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N  42.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 18.8N  44.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  48.0W    85 KTS
 
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