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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 1995

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND A SMALL AREA OF WINDS
ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  HOWEVER THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
MEASUREMENT...1001 MB...WOULD NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT A HURRICANE. 
MOREOVER...THERE WAS NO OBSERVATION OF A WALL CLOUD.  THEREFORE WE
ARE UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. 
THE PLANE FOUND A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF WINDS 50 KNOTS OR HIGHER AT
FLIGHT LEVEL.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS.  EVEN
THOUGH BARRY IS EMBEDDED IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO HOOK AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. 
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AS BARRY MERGES WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/11...ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER
THE EXPECTED TRACK IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST.  THIS
IS CLOSE TO THE DEEP-LAYER BAM STEERING.  THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL
TAKES THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 33.7N  70.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 35.2N  69.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 37.5N  67.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     09/1800Z 43.5N  61.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/1800Z 50.0N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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