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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 1995

RECON SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS EVENING.  HIGHEST
OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 74 KNOTS...SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS
NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE.  ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER OF ALLISON...OVERALL THE STORM IS NOT THAT
WELL ORGANIZED.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS
WHICH DO NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...BUT IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT ALLISON WILL STRENGTHEN BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10
FEET STILL EXISTS FOR THE COASTAL AREA OF APALACHEE BAY. 

RECON FIXES SHOW A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 14 KNOTS.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
IS JUST A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORE
REASONABLE-LOOKING OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS.   THE MID- AND
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOWS LOOK ZONAL ENOUGH TO THE NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE
TO CARRY THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NE UNITED STATES
AFTER ALLISON...IF IT SURVIVES ITS TRANSIT OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES...EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC.

PASCH 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 28.2N  86.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 30.1N  85.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 32.2N  83.9W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  81.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/0000Z 36.0N  77.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     08/0000Z 39.0N  69.0W    30 KTS
 
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