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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 1994
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE JUST PRIOR TO
1800Z.  BELIZE REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 30 KNOTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7...BUT STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION. 
ALL THE BAM MODELS AS WELL AS THE NHC90 KEEP THE CENTER INLAND
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY THE AVNO MOVES THE CYCLONE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ONLY THE QLM MOVES IT INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  OUR FORECAST TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE DISSIPATION
LIKELY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

WITH THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THERE IS STILL THE
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 16.8N  88.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N  89.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.2N  91.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  91.8W    20 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N  92.5W    DISSIPATING
 
 
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