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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 1994
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND 1005 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND
41 KNOTS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL.  DEEP CONVECTION IS RAGGED BUT HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/08 SHOULD MOVE THE DEPRESSION
OVER BELIZE BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN...THE STEERING SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE
WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.  IF THE SLOW MOTION DOES
OCCUR THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN.

THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

MAYFIELD


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 16.8N  88.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N  89.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.3N  90.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N  91.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N  92.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N  93.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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