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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 1994
 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS RAGGED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SURFACE
REPORTS AND SATELLITE ANIMATION HELP FIX THE BROAD CENTER.  INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME MAINLY DUE TO THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE
LANDMASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE PRESSURE LIKELY REMAINS NEAR 1007
MB...THE SAME AS REPORTED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIX AROUND 2100Z. 
ALTHOUGH POORLY DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY...THE DEPRESSION WOULD
ONLY TAKE A LITTLE STRENGTHENING FOR IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08.  THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE TOWARD BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE STEERING
CURRENTS MAY WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...COULD
REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN FOR AWHILE.

THE BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 16.6N  86.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.9N  87.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.3N  89.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N  90.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N  91.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  92.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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