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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 1994
 
AIR FORCE RECON FOUND A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
1007 MB...NEAR THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
ANIMATION.  DEEP CONVECTION IS RAGGED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE ADVISORIES.  INITIAL MOTION IS 300/05...AND THE LOW AND MID
LAYER STEERING SHOULD ALLOW THIS MOTION TO CONTINUE TOWARD BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN.  SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS INVOLVED WITH
LAND...AND THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVER THE
YUCATAN...WE WILL NOT FORECAST STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  RAINFALL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT.
 
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 16.6N  85.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.8N  86.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N  87.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N  88.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N  89.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N  91.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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