ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN NOV 13 1994 SURFACE SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 999 MB WITH WINDS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER AIR FORCE RECON WAS UNABLE TO IDENTIFY A TIGHT CENTER WITHIN THIS BROAD CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGES...PARTICULARLY THE INFRARED... CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AND SATELLITE FIXES HAVE CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. IT IS ASSUMED THAT GORDON IS IN THE PROCESS OF REORGANIZATION, AND THE CURRENT POSITION REFLECTS THE LOCATION OF THE MEAN CENTER OF THIS LARGER-SCALE LOW. AS A RESULT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS, GORDON HAS ACQUIRED SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, IN WHICH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE THE TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL- TYPE SYSTEM WITH TIME. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN, AND WE WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH ON THIS FORECAST. SINCE THE CENTER IS APPARENTLY REFORMING WELL NORTH OF ITS ESTIMATED POSITION SIX HOURS AGO, THE INITIAL MOTION REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT. BEST CURRENT ESTIMATE IS 360/10. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THAT A TURN TO LEFT WILL BEGIN WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID- TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS INDICATED BY THE NMC GLOBAL MODEL. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN 72 HOURS. THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS TRACK FORECAST CANNOT BE OVER- EMPHASIZED. IF THE CYCLONE CENTER BECOMES CLEARLY ESTABLISHED AND BEGINS THE TURN TO THE LEFT...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 22.5N 75.5W 40 KTS 12HR VT 14/0600Z 24.0N 75.5W 40 KTS 24HR VT 14/1800Z 25.0N 76.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 15/0600Z 25.7N 77.9W 40 KTS 48HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 79.5W 40 KTS 72HR VT 16/1800Z 26.5N 81.5W 40 KTS NNNN