ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED NOV 09 1994 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE LOCATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION RIGHT ON THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NICARAGUAN COAST. LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1005 MB...BUT WAS NOT MEASURED IN THE CENTER... AND WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT. SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND THEN EMERGING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. LATEST GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HUGGING THE COAST...AND STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM INTO A STORM AND A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IF THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS ITS IDENTITY AND MOVES OVER WATERS...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...WHICH HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO OVERPREDICT THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS SEASON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND BAM-MEDIUM PLACING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWEST AND NOT FAR FROM SWAN ISLAND IN 72 HOURS. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW AMOUNTS TO NEAR 18 INCHES. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 13.1N 83.6W 30 KTS...INLAND 12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.6N 83.7W 30 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.5N 84.0W 25 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 84.5W 25 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 85.0W 30 KTS 72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 85.0W 30 KTS NNNN