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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 07 1994
 
FLORENCE REFUSES TO WEAKEN AND IN FACT SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5+
AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
5.0 AND 5.6 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE THE EYE REMAINS LARGE
AND WELL-DEFINED.  THEREFORE...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS
IN THIS ADVISORY. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 060/26. FLORENCE IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM SO...THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME MODELS AT LEAST UP TO 48
HOURS.
 
AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 36.0N  51.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 38.0N  47.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 47.0N  33.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     09/1800Z 52.0N  27.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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