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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 07 1994

FLORENCE HAS A WIDE AND DISTINCT EYE OF ABOUT 30 TO 35 N MI IN
DIAMETER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BOTH FROM SAF AND SAB ARE
4.5 AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE REACHING 5.0 SO THE WINDS ARE
INCREASED TO 75 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A TEMPORARY
FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS OVER COOL
WATERS.  

FLORENCE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM TO THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
055/15. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED

TODAY AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.  QLM AND GFDL MODELS WRAP FLORENCE
AROUND THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.    

AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 34.8N  54.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 36.0N  52.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 39.5N  44.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 45.0N  36.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     09/1200Z 53.0N  31.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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