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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 07 1994
 
IR IMAGES SUGGEST A BROADENING EYE WITHIN A CLOUD RING WHOSE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY.  OVERALL, THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE.  FLORENCE APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN
ITS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  CURRENT SPEED IS ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
 
SATELLITE PICTURES AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE MID-LATITUDE
STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FLORENCE AND SHOULD
SWEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING SPEED...TO
ABOUT 30 KT IN ONLY 24 HOURS.  THE AVN AND MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
INDICATE THAT FLORENCE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM WHILE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 48 HOURS. 
ACTUALLY, BY 72 HOURS THERE IS A 2100 N MI DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST
POSITIONS BETWEEN THE NHC90 (WHICH EJECTS FLORENCE EASTWARD TO NEAR
MOROCCO) AND THE GFDL AND QLM (WHICH WRAP FLORENCE AROUND THE MID-
LATITUDE LOW).  THE BAM OUTPUT INDICATES INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFDL AND BAMM, AND
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 34.0N  55.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 35.0N  53.9W    65 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 38.3N  47.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 43.2N  41.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 48.8N  38.1W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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