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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 06 1994
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EYE PATTERN
WITH ONE SMALL RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WARMER
CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
MAX WINDS REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE SAB AND
NHC.  THE LATEST NMC AVIATION MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT FLORENCE WILL
QUICKLY BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE LOW
CENTER MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  HOWEVER...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR FLORENCE TO MAINTAIN
ITS IDENTITY FOR A WHILE AND MOVE OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
LOW.  OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS.  IT WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE LOW WITHIN 72
HOURS.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED...AND THE HURRICANE HAS
SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS THE
VIGOROUS TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES EASTWARD...FLORENCE
SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE MID AND DEEP LAYER BAMS.

MAYFIELD
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 33.4N  56.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 34.5N  56.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 37.0N  52.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 46.5N  37.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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