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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 06 1994
 
AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 982 MB BY DROPSONDE IN THE EYE AT 1941Z.  THIS
IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CONCURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTED
BY THE PLANE, AT 10,000 FEET, WAS 72 KNOTS.  SLOW WEAKENING OF
FLORENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO.  IT IS LIKELY THAT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
BE TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE LATEST AVIATION RUN
FROM NMC SUGGESTS THAT FLORENCE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A POWERFUL
MID-LATITUDE LOW CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER THE GFDL MODEL, WHICH CARRIES MORE DETAILS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX IN ITS INITIAL STATE, INDICATES THAT
FLORENCE WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AT LEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/07.  THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT.  CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AFTER 24 HOURS, WHEN
THE VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
BEGINS TO AFFECT FLORENCE.  THE NHC FORECAST POINTS ARE SIMILAR TO
THOSE GIVEN BY THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE AIR FORCE RECON DATA, THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 33.4N  56.7W    70 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 34.7N  56.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 37.0N  53.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 40.5N  48.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 44.0N  42.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/1800Z 53.0N  32.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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