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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 06 1994
 
LATEST POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.  MY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
TURNS FLORENCE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH
CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE GETS CAUGHT UP IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY CURRENT.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
 
THE EYE IS LESS WELL-DEFINED AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS
AS PER DVORAK RULES.  FLORENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND
COOLER WATERS.  NONETHELESS THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD
BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 32.9N  57.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  56.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 35.5N  54.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.0N  51.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 50.0N  32.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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