ZCZC MIAWRKAD1 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 06 1994
 
THE EYE IS STILL RATHER WELL-DEFINED, BUT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
INDICATE THAT FLORENCE COULD BE AT PEAK INTENSITY.  THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE HAS SWUNG A LITTLE BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW TOWARD
THE NNW AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
 
THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE AVN MODEL SHOWS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
FLORENCE DEEPENING AND MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT WHICH WILL TURN FLORENCE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  BY 48-72 HOURS, FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS.  THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BAM, GFDL, AND QLM
FORECASTS, AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
 
WHILE THE SYSTEM COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SHEARING AS IT LOSES ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AROUND 72 HOURS, THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEEPENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RACING JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  SHIFOR INDICATES
LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE FOR 3 DAYS.  THIS FORECAST SHOWS SLOW
WEAKENING.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 32.5N  57.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 33.5N  57.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 34.8N  55.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.1N  53.7W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 39.3N  48.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 47.5N  36.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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