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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 05 1994
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED EYE...ALTHOUGH
THE EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RELATIVELY WARM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST OBJECTIVELY DERIVED DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY.  SINCE THE TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER SEVERAL HOURS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT FLORENCE HAS PEAKED.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07.  THE NMC AVIATION MODEL INDICATES
THAT THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
SHOULD DISINTEGRATE...AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES
EASTWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS OVER FLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE HURRICANE GRADUALLY MOVES
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH SHOULD THEN START
TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE MID AND
DEEP LAYER BAM GUIDANCE AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AVNO MODEL WHICH SHOWS LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALL NWS TRACK
PREDICTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL INDICATE
RECURVATURE.

MAYFIELD


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 31.7N  56.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 32.3N  57.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 33.5N  57.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 34.5N  56.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 36.5N  52.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 43.5N  41.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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