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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 05 1994
 
USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FROM VISIBLE VS. INFRARED IMAGERY GIVES
DIFFERING RESULTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF FLORENCE, PRIMARILY
BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP FOR THIS HIGHER LATITUDE
SYSTEM.  NOTWITHSTANDING, THE SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED ON THE
IMAGES, WITH AN EYE STILL APPARENT.  BEST ESTIMATE FOR MAXIMUM WINDS
IS 75 KNOTS...WHICH IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TSAF AND SAB.  THUS...FLORENCE IS THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF
THE 1994 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  PRESUMABLY THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY, SINCE ITS CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NORTHWEST...315/08.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO.  FLORENCE IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PREDICTED TO SWEEP OFF THE EAST
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, TO PICK UP FLORENCE AND TO CARRY IT
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.  PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK
PREDICTION TECHNIQUES SHOW RECURVATURE.  THE BAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS, BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE.  THE AVIATION TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 12
TO 72 HOURS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 31.0N  56.6W    75 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 31.6N  57.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.7N  58.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.6N  57.8W    70 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 35.0N  55.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 41.0N  45.0W    50 KTS
 
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