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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT NOV 05 1994

LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE
MAKING ITS APPEARANCE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TSAF AND SAB
SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS.  NOT MUCH FURTHER INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
HURRICANE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE GETTING INVOLVED WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS.

FLORENCE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE
310/08.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  A 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, AND THE
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FLORENCE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS
GENERALLY AGREE ON RECURVATURE BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 30.3N  56.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 31.0N  57.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  58.1W    70 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 33.0N  58.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  57.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  49.0W    50 KTS
 
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