ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI NOV 04 1994 VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND RECENT IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE AND EXPANDING. CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT. BOTH TSAF AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SO FLORENCE IS NOW A HURRICANE AND HAS ONE OF THE BEST CLOUD PATTERNS OBSERVED SO FAR IN THE ATLANTIC THIS SEASON. SOME STRENGTHENING MAY STILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. INITIAL MOTION IS 305/07. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS HIGH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON WV IMAGES. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A NEW TROUGH...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND FLORENCE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO MODELS BUT KEEPING FLORENCE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. WE PREFER TO WAIT FOR A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEW TROUGH TO INDICATE THE NORTHWARD TURN OF FLORENCE BY 72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 28.8N 54.6W 65 KTS 12HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 55.5W 70 KTS 24HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 56.7W 70 KTS 36HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 58.0W 70 KTS 48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 59.5W 70 KTS 72HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W 70 KTS NNNN