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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 04 1994

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT FLORENCE HAS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY.  CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
THERE IS A PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE STORM.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE SOUTH BUT
APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH TIME.  MOREOVER...THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
SHEAR.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONE POSSIBLE HINDERANCE TO INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE AN INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR...AND THIS COULD HALT DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THE NMC GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL PREDICTS THIS HIGH TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN A LITTLE, WHILE A TROUGH PASSES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  WITH THESE STEERING FEATURES, FLORENCE IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST MAY TRY TO PICK UP FLORENCE.  HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH IS NOT
FORECAST TO HAVE MUCH AMPLITUDE, AND IT COULD BYPASS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TRACKS ARE GENERALLY A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...SO THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE.  

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 28.4N  54.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 29.2N  55.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  57.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.6N  58.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.2N  60.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 32.0N  62.0W    70 KTS
 
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