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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 04 1994
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  WITH THE STORM
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.  WE HAVE NOT TALKED SERIOUSLY ABOUT RECURVATURE SINCE THE
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN A TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...
HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN AND UKMET MODELS BOTH SHOW A VORTEX BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE PROBLEM IS THAT FLORENCE IS NOT A
TRUE TROPICAL SYSTEM YET...ALTHOUGH THE TRANSFORMATION SEEMS TO BE
PROGRESSING.  THIS BEING THE CASE...IT PROBABLY IS NOT BEING
CORRECTLY INITIALIZED.
 
INTENSITY-WISE WE ARE HOLDING STEADY.  WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
FLORENCE BECOMING MORE TROPICAL...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME
RIDGING UPSTREAM...MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.  OFFICIAL
FORECAST GOES TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SHIFOR MODEL.
 
JARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 27.8N  53.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 28.6N  54.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  55.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 30.1N  56.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  58.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  61.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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