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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI NOV 04 1994
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/06.  AVIATION MODEL 00Z RUN SHOWS
CUT-OFF DEEP-LAYER-MEAN LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR 3 DAYS.  ALL
OF THE DYNAMIC TRACK MODELS SUGGEST A MO0STLY WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH 72 HOURS EXCEPT THE STATISTICAL TYPES...CLIPER AND
NHC90...WHICH SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION AT 6 KNOTS FOR 72
HOURS SIMILAR TO THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.

NOTD MUCH HAPPENING INTENSITY-WISE WITH 2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TSAF AND SAB.  THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTS AND THERE IS SOME
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE STORM CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES, THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES TO 50 KNOTS
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SHIFOR MODEL.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 26.9N  53.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.7N  53.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 28.7N  55.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  56.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 30.0N  57.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  60.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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