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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU NOV 03 1994

          ...COR FOR THE 48H POSITION..

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BOTH FROM SAB AND TSAF ARE 2.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SOME CONVECTION NEAR A TIGHT
CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS ACQUIRED MORE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.  THE OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED YET SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS STILL INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW BUT IT HAS IMPROVED. A
SHIP EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 32 KNOTS AND 1007.1 MB
AND 82 F SST.  THEREFORE...WE ARE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS
INDICATED BY SHIFOR...SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.   

INITIAL MOTION IS 305/06. TRACK MODELS AND LATEST AVN RUN INDICATE
THAT FLORENCE WILL MISS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE ON
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE ABOUT THE SAME SPEED THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
MODELS...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND THE QLM.  HOWEVER... THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT FLORENCE TURNS NORTHWARD SOONER AS INDICATED BY THE
GOOD OLD CLIPER. 

AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 26.1N  52.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  53.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  54.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  55.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 28.5N  57.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  60.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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