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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU NOV 03 1994
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 1007 MB AND 30 KT WINDS, SO ADVISORIES ARE NOW
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ABOUT 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT.

THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS
EMBEDDED IN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THE AVN MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THE UPPER-PART OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES MORE
WESTWARD.  THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE AFTER 48 HOURS IN A MANNER
CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A
WNW TO NW HEADING FOR TWO DAYS, WITH A BEND BACK TOWARD THE W TO WNW
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  

THE AVN OUTPUT IMPLIES AN INCREASING SHEAR, SO ONLY SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIFOR AND
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 25.4N  52.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 25.9N  53.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 26.6N  54.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.3N  55.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 27.9N  56.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 28.5N  59.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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