ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 30 1993

THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EASY TO TRACK AT THIS TIME.  OBSERVATIONS FROM
BERMUDA FROM 0300 THROUGH 0700 UTC SHOW THAT THE WIND HAS SHIFTED
FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY...AND THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN FROM 1015
TO 1013 MB..AT LEAST PARTLY DUE TO THE SEMIDIURNAL CYCLE.  THE WIND
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
BERMUDA.  HOWEVER THE DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLAND.  SATELLITE FIXES FROM TSAF AND SAB AT 0600 UTC ARE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT 100 N MI APART.  THE OFFICIAL
POSITION ESTIMATE...AND INITIAL MOTION...IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF
THE ABOVE WITH REASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE DEEP BAM AND
THE NHC90 FORECAST A TRACK OVER NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE MEDIUM BAM.

NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AS IT
BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH THE NEARBY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
   
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 33.5N  64.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 36.3N  63.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 40.2N  60.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 43.5N  56.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 46.5N  50.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/0600Z 50.0N  35.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL