ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 1993
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SHIP PDMQ REPORTED 33 KNOT WINDS JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTER AND A
1010.8 MB PRESSURE.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR...THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL BRING
THE SYSTEM TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/06. THIS TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A
SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH BAM-D AND NHC90
WHICH ARE RESPONDING TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. 

AVILA 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 27.4N  62.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 28.2N  62.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 29.0N  63.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 30.0N  62.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 32.0N  60.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 35.5N  51.5W    35 KTS