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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1993
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY
COLD TOPS...AND RATHER RAGGED LOOKING BANDING FEATURES.  GERT IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS ONCE AGAIN.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS
NOW 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND
NHC SATELLITE ANALYSTS.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND HAS AN ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER MEAN HIGH TO THE NORTH OF GERT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THIS
GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE CENTER MOVING INLAND BETWEEN 36 AND 48
HOURS...AND LIKELY DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE BAM MODELS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 20.1N  92.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 20.7N  94.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 21.2N  95.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 21.7N  97.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 102.0W    DISSIPATED