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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 1993

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS MOVING 295/10
RATHER THAN 325/09 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A RELOCATION IS
REQUIRED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS
A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FOR 72 HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE GERT ON A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

SINCE THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...I.E...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...THE FORECAST IS FOR 60 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VERA CRUZ TO SOTO LA MARINA.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 19.5N  91.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N  93.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 20.9N  95.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 21.5N  97.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  99.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N 102.0W    25 KTS...INLAND