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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 1993
 
THE CENTER IS OVER LAND AND POORLY DEFINED.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  ALL TRACK MODELS TURN GERT WESTWARD WITH 72
HOUR POSITIONS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 20 AND 24 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE ENVELOP OF TRACK MODEL FORECASTS.

WITH THE CENTER OVER LAND AND WITH THE ABSENCE OF OBSERVATIONS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GERT IS AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSUL.  THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE TIME OVER THE GULF IN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 19.5N  89.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     19/0000Z 20.7N  90.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 22.2N  91.8W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     20/0000Z 23.0N  93.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 23.5N  95.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 23.5N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND