ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1993
 
THE LARGE CIRCULATION HAS A POORLY DEFINED CENTER FOR WHICH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08.  ALL TRACK MODELS SHOW CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL OR
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  WHETHER OR NOT THE
SYSTEM RETAINS ITS CIRCULATION FEATURES FOR 48 HOURS IS NOT YET
DETERMINED.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WATER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 72 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 15.9N  87.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.8N  88.4W    25 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  89.4W    25 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N  90.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 20.5N  90.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 22.5N  91.0W    30 KTS