ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1993
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A SHIP SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED
240/25 INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. LATEST
PRESSURE FROM SAN ANDRES (SKSP/0800 UTC)...WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER...WAS NEAR 1002.4 MB.  THEREFORE..THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR TODAY
BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING WITH BAM-M...SHALLOW AS WELL AS THE AVN TURNING GERT TO
THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...BAM-D...QLM AND NHC90 INDICATE A
GENERAL W TO WNW TRACK WHICH IS MORE COMMON AT SUCH LOW LATITUDES.
...YOU WOULD NEED A CRANE TO PULL A SYSTEM NORTHWARD FROM DOWN
THERE.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG THE LINE OF BAM-D AND QLM AND
BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE STORM OVER THE COAST IN 12 HOURS OR LESS.
 
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THIS IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 11.0N  82.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.5N  83.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.0N  84.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     16/1800Z 12.5N  85.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N  86.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N  87.5W    25 KTS