ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1993
 
FOR SO EARLY IN ITS LIFETIME...THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION BOTH AT LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS.  NUMEROUS TRANSITORY
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE ROTATING ABOUT THE CENTER.  ALL THAT IS KEEPING
IT FROM HAVING A MORE CLASSIC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS
THE RELATIVE SCARCITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 
HOWEVER... SOME INCREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED THERE IN THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS.  SHIP REPORTS JUST BELOW 30 KT AT 1800 AND 0000
UTC CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
 
THE 1200 UTC AVN MODEL FORECASTS THAT THE E-W RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN.  THAT MODEL HAD A VERY DISTINCT
INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE AT ALL LEVELS IN THE VERTICAL...AND
MOVED THE SYSTEM EN MASSE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW.  ACCORDING TO
NMC...ONE OF THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAD A SIMILAR FORECAST.  THE TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. 
THIS COULD BE DUE MORE TO THE CONTAMINATING EFFECTS OF THE
INITIALIZED VORTEX ITSELF THAN TO ANY TRUE...OR MODEL
PERCEIVED...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK SHOWING A POSSIBLE LANDFALL IN 24 TO
36 HOURS...WITH A GREATER NORTHERLY COMPONENT THEREAFTER AS
INDICATED FOR A THEN-WEAKENING SYSTEM BY BAMM.  ON THAT TRACK...AND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED NOW FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PART OF NICARAGUA.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 10.6N  81.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 10.8N  82.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 11.3N  83.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.7N  83.9W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/0000Z 12.2N  84.7W    30 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 13.5N  86.0W    25 KTS