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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1993
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08 BASED ON RECON FIXES AT 05 TO 11Z. 
MOTION DURING LAST FEW HOURS USING SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES 330
OR 340 DEGREE HEADING.  THE BAM 12Z TRACK MODELS SHOW A SHARP
RECURVATURE AND THE HURRICANE STAYING EAST OF THE COAST.  THE 00Z
AVIATION MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE TO SHOW THE CENTER REACHING CAPE
HATTERAS AND THIS IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS THE CENTER TO 75 DEGREES WEST BUT NO FURTHER.
THIS IS STILL RATHER CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS.

PRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE RECON INDICATE 965 MB AND 90 KNOTS
SO EMILY IS ON THE THRESHOLD OF A CATEGORY THREE.  DIAMOND SHOALS
FIRST HAD STORM FORCE AT 09Z AND THIS GIVES A 34-KNOT WIND SPEED
RADIUS OF 90 NMI IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET.  THE
FORECAST TRACK ALLOWS REDUCING THE SURGE HEIGHTS TO 3 TO 6 FEET OR
LESS FOR THE WARNED AREA.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 34.1N  74.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 35.4N  75.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 37.1N  74.2W   100 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 38.5N  71.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 39.7N  65.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 40.5N  58.0W    60 KTS