ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1992

A SHIP WITH ID UBPE REPORTED 39 KNOT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AT 0500 UTC.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD
PATTERN STILL LOOKS DISORGANIZED DUE TO SHEARING AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE
OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TSAF MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON ARE BOTH ONLY 25 KNOTS.  THE LATEST AVN GUIDANCE AGAIN
INDICATES THAT THE SHEARING OVER THE DEPRESSION WILL DECREASE AS IT
MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD...AND THAT SAME MODEL PREDICTS THE
DEPRESSIONS WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS IN A FEW DAYS. 
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
WATERS.

THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY
A LITTLE SLOWER ON ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...350/07.
THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE NHC90 AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.  AS NOTED
EARLIER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN IN A FEW DAYS...SINCE THE AVN
500 MB FORECAST SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 19.6N  46.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.8N  46.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 22.6N  46.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 24.7N  46.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N  46.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 30.5N  45.5W    40 KTS