ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1992
 
THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS BELIEVED TO
BE IS OBSCURED BY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  HOWEVER IT STILL DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE AVN FORECAST INDICATES THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEARING WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT...UNTIL THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY...NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST.
 
THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/08.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD WHEN A LITTLE MORE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
PREDICTED.  THIS IS BASED ON THE AVN GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THE STEERING CURRENT WILL WEAKEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION
BY THAT TIME.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 19.4N  46.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.7N  46.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 22.7N  46.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 25.0N  46.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 27.0N  46.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 30.0N  45.0W    30 KTS