ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1992
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  LAST LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR TYPE PATTERN AND EXTRAPOLATION WILL
BE USED TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT LOCATION.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 290/13.  NMC AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD RESULT IN A WNW TO NW MOTION...AND THE CURRENT
TRACK IS A BLEND OF ALL THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB...NHC...AND AFGWC ALL AGREE ON 25
KNOTS.  WE WILL NOT INDICATE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...UNTIL WE SEE
IF THE DEPRESSION CAN SURVIVE THE SHEAR IT IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 13.0N  44.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.6N  46.2W    25 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 14.9N  48.6W    25 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.2N  50.4W    25 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N  51.9W    25 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N  54.5W    25 KTS