ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1992
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WAS REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THE DEPRESSION COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IR IMAGES STILL SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOME A REMOTE POSSIBILTY OF
REGENERATION EXITS.  WE ARE NOT INDICATING ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY
AT THIS TIME.

INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BEST GUESS IS 285/12 AND IF
THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES... THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
THERAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 12.2N  41.1W    25 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 12.7N  42.9W    25 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 13.3N  45.4W    25 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N  47.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N  50.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N  52.0W    25 KTS