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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 1992
 
THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS BEING ASSIGNED THE NUMBER TWO.  THE
PREVIOUS DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF 1992...WAS ERRONEOUSLY CALLED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO.  THE CONFUSION ORIGINATED IN THE
NUMBERING OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ONE IN APRIL. 

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT.  THE PLANE FOUND 30 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 1016 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.  INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
THE SAME THROUGHOUT 72 HOURS BUT THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/06. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER...IN
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.  THE NORTHWARD TURN OF THE DEPRESSION IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

AVILA/JARRELL
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 28.5N  62.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 28.7N  63.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 29.1N  65.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 30.0N  66.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  66.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  66.0W    30 KTS