ZCZC MIAWRKAD2 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1992

SHIP AND NOAA BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED. 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS POORLY DEFINED CENTER. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE DEPRESSION...THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWARD AROUND 5 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
THEREAFTER.  THIS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. 

AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 26.0N  86.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 26.5N  86.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.5N  85.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  80.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 34.0N  72.5W    25 KTS